To Republican voters who were promised a “red wave” in November’s midterm elections, the results of America’s midterm elections have likely proved shocking. After blaming Democratic leaders for inflation, an economic downturn, and pandemic paranoia in the years since President Biden took office, Republicans expected to gain a slim majority in the Senate and an even more comfortable one in the House. Instead, Democrats rallied their liberal and moderate bases around issues such as abortion and far-right extremism, defending a narrow Senate majority and keeping Republican control of the House to a minimum. Should Republicans have predicted this underwhelming performance?
Months before the midterm election, the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade drastically impacted America’s political landscape. Suddenly, amid rising inflation and soaring gas prices exacerbated by policy choices and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, abortion rights emerged as a key issue in the 2022 midterms. While abortion has historically rallied conservative pro-lifers in greater numbers than it has pro-choice liberals, Roe v. Wade’s reversal made abortion rights a life-or-death issue for a growing number of voters. In July, a Gallup poll showed abortion was the most important issue of the largest number of Americans since 1984. Likewise, at the polls in November, swaths of voters placed more emphasis on abortion rights rather than issues like inflation or crime, two areas where Republicans expected slam-dunk victories.
SCOTUS’ decision to overturn Roe v. Wade exposed a Republican Achilles heel, and Democrats were quick to capitalize. With more ammunition to portray Republicans as radical authoritarians, Democrats plugged nearly $500 million worth of advertisement campaigns focused on abortion. Victory for Democrats in Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico ensued. In response, some Republican candidates shifted their views on abortion, removing pro-life stances from campaign websites or avoiding the topic entirely. In blue states, some Republican candidates even promised not to alter abortion laws.
Former President Donald Trump, however, likely poses the greatest threat to the future of the G.O.P. Most Trump-backed candidates for the House and Senate lost their races. Some of Trump’s candidates, like Ohio’s R.J. Majewski, a House candidate who attended Trump’s January 6 Stop the Steal rally, promoted 2020 presidential election denial. These inexperienced, unpolished politicians lacked the money or media training to defend themselves against Democratic ad campaigns characterizing them as extremists.
This disconnect between Trump’s advocates and American voters played out especially in the Pennsylvania Senate race between John Fetterman and Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz. Fetterman, with episodes of incoherence stemming from his stroke in May of this year, was seen by many as a weak candidate. But Oz, a TV personality who didn’t even residence in the state he hoped to represent, was picked apart by Democrats and lost.
Former Marco Rubio staffer Greg Nunziatta expressed growing distaste for Trump among Republicans a day after Midterm Election Day, tweeting that “Trump picked sure losers in winnable races…requiring the party to spend tons of money we’d rather spend elsewhere.” Ben Shapiro, an outspoken conservative commentator and longtime Trump advocate, echoed this sentiment on November 9, noting Trump’s loss in 2020 and his endorsees’ losses in 2022. Shapiro elaborated, “Just because some out-of-the-box candidates are capable of defying gravity for a short period of time does not mean that they don’t fly too close to the sun.”
On Wall Street, former Trump donors have called for an end to his influence among Republicans, calling for a “fresh face” and a “new generation” of the G.O.P. Ken Griffin, billionaire Chief Executive Officer of hedge fund Citadel, expressed his support in November for Florida governor Ron DeSanti and pledged $5 million to DeSantis’ reelection campaign this year. In the same announcement, citing G.O.P. losses in the 2018 midterms, Trump’s 2020 presidential election loss, and Trump’s candidates’ losses in 2022, Griffin called Trump a “three-time loser.” For the G.O.P., the Citadel chief executive’s revised stance on Trump is a dramatic shift. Although Griffin only gave $10,000 to Trump’s campaign, Griffin has donated around $60 million to Republican candidates this election cycle alone, his political contributions surpassed only by George Soros and Richard Uihlein. Griffin’s open criticism of Trump has sent shockwaves through Wall Street; Blackstone C.E.O. Stephen Schwartzmann and Interactive Brokers chairman Thomas Peterffy, both key Republican donors, both withdrew their support for Trump the day after Griffin’s announcement. While Trump’s fiscal policy benefited these financiers, the president’s divisive rhetoric hindered the G.O.P.’s relationship with large corporations. Griffin and his peers hope that Trump’s departure will usher in a new era of conservatism, one with increased diversity, less division, and more corporate partnerships.
Although the left’s defense of reproductive rights and combat against alt-right extremism helped to prevent a red wave in these midterms, it does not look like Democrats have smooth sailing ahead. With a recession looming, it seems the American public is growing increasingly wary of the Biden administration’s ability to generate an effective plan to fight inflation and increasingly frustrated by the consequences thereof, such as rising prices and underperforming markets. Although there was no red wave this year, these sentiments could indicate a red future, possibly with DeSantis at the center. While more left-leaning independents may take offense to DeSantis’ stances on certain social issues, the Florida governor has proven himself capable of growing his base, something it seems Trump has not been able to do since 2016. Additionally, the willingness of Republican candidates to alter their views on abortion, even to avoid Democratic pushback, could signify a step away from the partisan extremism which has divided Americans and defined American politics for the past five years. As Ben Shapiro said in his show’s midterm recap, “[Americans] are sick of crazy.”
By Ned Thornton
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