By: Charlotte Tang
Following “provocative” comments about the Taiwan conflict by Japan’s prime minister, China installed restrictions on materials for Japanese technology and defense firms.
For decades, the political status of Taiwan has been a source of tension for many nations, specifically China, Japan, and the US, due to its strategic location and capitalist system that directly counteract China’s communist ambitions. Diplomatic ties between China and Japan have significantly decreased amid Chinese military drills in the Taiwan strait and Japan’s planning with its allies. US intelligence estimates that Xi Jinping has pushed for China to be militarily ready by 2027, regardless of when he wishes to proceed beyond the Taiwan Strait, a 180 km-wide strait separating Taiwan from mainland Asia. The recently elected Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that the proposed invasion would threaten Japan due to the drastic shift in power in the Pacific region, but added, “If Taiwan is fine, Japan is fine.” Beijing retaliated against Tokyo’s statement by issuing a travel advisory discouraging Chinese travelers from visiting Japan, in an effort to undermine Japan’s tourism-heavy economy. And just in the past few weeks, China moved to restrict exports of rare earth materials, such as magnets, to Japanese technology and defense firms that serve as military contractors. As economic and military retaliation and democratic ties are severed between China and Japan, Beijing’s actions signal that a Taiwan invasion is no longer hypothetical but an imminent conflict that will fundamentally reshape the balance of power throughout Asia as a whole.
Historically, China has dominated the world’s rare-earth supply and will continue to do so. The Global Finance Magazine estimates that by 2030, China will control a whopping 51% of the world’s rare earth production and 76% of refining. Other nations, in addition to Japan, have attempted to diversify alternative sources to replace this dependency. Strategically, this was a well-calculated move by Beijing. Japan experienced a similar withdrawal in 2010 over a territorial dispute, yet, according to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, more than 70% of its rare earth supply comes from Chinese imports.
The 2010 restriction was a punishment for the Japanese arrest of Chinese fishermen in the disputed Senkaku Islands. The ban had a significant impact on the automobile industry, with car companies such as Nissan and Toyota, which account for a majority of the export-based economy, experiencing decreases in sales. As this incident did not involve Taiwan’s sovereignty, Japan made little public investment in unnecessary military contracting to defend the region. Instead, this ban propelled Japan into unforeseen investments into their own deep-sea mining projects. Trial mining on the seabed off Minami-Torishima Island in the Pacific, 1,900 km southeast of Tokyo, has been underway since 2018. Nikkei Business Daily has reported that this region is estimated to hold 16 million tonnes of rare earth materials, including 730 years’ worth of dysprosium, used in high-strength magnets in phones and electric cars, and 780 years’ worth of yttrium, used in lasers, both of which remain extremely useful for technology. Overall, this project has cost over 40 billion yen since its beginning, raising the question of whether these governmental investments will succeed or set Japan back further.
As Beijing’s 2027 deadline approaches, the final question of whether Japan can recover in time for regional defense is raised. The Japanese ship involved in the Minami-Torishima mining expedition is scheduled to return to port on February 14. If it is successful, a full-scale mining project will be initiated by February 2027. But this timing cuts too close and leaves little margin for error or failure, making the most likely outcome Japan needing backup in the event of a Chinese invasion under their proposed timeline. Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, said the impact on the Japanese economy would be “extremely severe” and estimated that even a three-month ban could cost Japan 660 billion yen and reduce the nation’s gross domestic product by 0.1%. If Japan’s economy suffers this predicted severe disruption from export restrictions or supply chain issues, Tokyo’s ability to rapidly allocate funds to defense spending and sustain military readiness would be constrained. This weakens Taiwanese sovereignty as a whole, as Japan plays a critical role in supporting U.S. operations in the Pacific. A financially troubled Japan would be less capable of acting on the front lines or even serving as a defender in the event of an invasion. Ultimately, this will increase the burden on Taiwan to bolster its own defenses while simultaneously forcing greater reliance on U.S. military deterrence rather than its neighbors’. With Taiwan’s security increasingly dependent on American intervention rather than a coordinated regional response involving Japan, the stakes for the U.S. are raised, increasing the risk of rapid escalation if China proceeds with an invasion.
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